Alternative Resources

In 2011 and 2015, I presented an assessment of the yet-to-find (YTF) oil potential in the Brazilian pre-salt region, utilizing an exploration modeling tool and a stochastic simulation method (Monte Carlo) for estimating potential accumulations discovered and remaining to be discovered. Despite the robust methodology used, it is understandable that in light of the new, much lower oil prices in effect currently, the YTF oil assessment may be questioned regarding how realistic it may be in a protracted low oil price environment. In 2016 I presented such an assessment, for oil prices below US$50/bbl. Now, given even lower oil prices that may represent a new lower-for-longer scenario, I again revisit past assessments. The results are presented in the context of important geopolitical implications for assessments that point to regions in the world where oil and gas resources will likely continue to be viable despite low oil prices, and the geopolitical rearrangements this implies.