The report is available at www.worldenergyoutlook.org.
The production shift:
The demand shift:
The shifts in production and demand result in dependence on imported oil growing for EU and Asian countries, but declining for the US. This shift leaves 90 percent of Middle East oil going to Asia by 2035. This, in turn, increases the pressure on the Straits of Malacca, a narrow (minimum 1.7 miles wide) passage through Malaysia that already carries over 15 million barrels of oil per day. Countries such as Japan and South Korea may need to make decisions about committing military resources to protect tankers from piracy along the Malaysian tanker routes or forging alliances and building pipelines with China or Russia.
While some things are changing, many energy realities are expected to change little.
Picture above: oil tankers loading at Al Basrah Oil Terminal in Iraq (2004). Recent upgrades allow the terminal to load 3 million barrels of oil per day.
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